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California Carbon: New Supply Clarity Drives Markets
KRBN Summer Report
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With carbon markets drawing greater attention, we’ve highlighted the latest developments in our quarterly report. Three of our four core markets showed strong positive returns for the quarter, and while volatility is an inherent feature of this asset, we believe the long-term structural growth potential remains intact.
UK carbon led with the highest returns* but still has some ground to cover to get back up to previous levels seen in early 2023. European carbon faced mixed signals, but positive economic recovery and political support outweighed industrial activity and supply chain challenges. With the EU Parliament elections behind us and improved fundamentals on the horizon, we expect stronger support for the market. In California, recent public workshops clarified the highly anticipated annual cap adjustments, although implementation shifted from 2025 to 2026. Meanwhile, the Northeast power market (RGGI) continued to rally into the second quarter, driven by strong fundamentals and enthusiasm for the ongoing market reform.
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*Among the Emissions Trading Systems covered by KRBN in Q2 2024